Posts

Negative Interest Rates? The scare of the ever-dipping values.

Just like all over the world, interest rates are going down in the United Kingdom, causing a lot of issues in the financial services industry. The Bank of England, a large bank in the UK,  said last week it had  written to all banks and building societies  to check whether they could pass on negative interest rates if the central bank cut the cost of borrowing below the current base rate of 0.1%. Negative interest rates would not only impact banks' profits, but it also will gravely harm the consumer.  It would hurt the banks as they depend on these mortgage loans to stay afloat. Since the rates are so low, they cannot make much revenue from the loans that they issue. This will hurt the consumer as they will have to pay the banks extra due to the negative interest rates. They not only will not make any interest money in their accounts, but also may have to pay the bank in the event of negative rates.  The banks are thinking about artificially making the rates 0% ...

Second Quarter GDP dropped 32.9% due to shutdowns

The U.S. economy saw the biggest quarterly plunge in activity ever, though the plummet in the second quarter wasn’t as bad as feared. Gross domestic product from April to June plunged 32.9% on an annualized basis, according to the Commerce Department’s first reading on the data released Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a drop of 34.7%. Still, it was the worst drop ever, with the closest previously coming in mid-1921. This was even worse than any of the GDP declines of the Great Recession and the Great Depression.  Neither the Great Depression nor the Great Recession nor any of the more than three dozen economic slumps over the past two centuries have ever caused such a sharp drain over so short a period of time. By comparison, the worst quarter during the financial crisis of 2008 was the 8.4% GDP drop in the fourth quarter of that year. The previous low-water mark was a 10% slide in the first quarter of 1958, while the worst in recorded history came i...

Why Trump is a solid economic option for president this year

I hope I did not steer anyone away with the controversial title but TRUST ME, this is a very interesting take on the presidential race. I won't be getting into the social policies of each candidate, because those are easily searchable on the web. I'll be delving into the economic implications of this next election and what exactly it means for the USA as an economic power.  Trump is known to be very strict when it comes to fiscal policy on other countries. He has placed various sanctions on China, North Korea, and many more. He wants the United States to be the best when it comes to economics. He wants the dollar to be the strongest currency. This is good as it can ensure our economic dominance for years to come. As of now, the dollar is used in 62% of all economic deals in the world. One country owning the majority? Now that's dominance.  China wants to replace the dollar as the world's most dominant currency with the Chinese yuan. They want international contracts to ...

Why do falling birth rates correlate to more economic development?

Many researchers have come up with the conclusion that decreasing fertility rates will then cause our population to fall back down. A new report in a peer-reviewed medical journal, The Lancet, has concluded that the world population will peak at 9.7 billion by 2064, but then fall back down to 8.8 billion by 2100. I will now explain the different situations across the whole world by illustrating the relationship between economic development and birth and death rates.  To begin, highly economically developed countries such as Japan, Germany, Italy, and Spain are expected to decrease in population in the next century or so. This is what we call Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM).  In  Stage 5  of the  DTM,  a country experiences loss to the overall population as the death rate becomes higher than the birth rate. What  occurs  is an aging citizenry that will eventually lead to a decrease in the total population. More people are working ...

COVID-19 Economy Market Analysis

Hello all, I have just finished writing a research paper with guidance from a professor at the University of Connecticut. Here is the link if you want to take a look at it! It took me a long time to complete and I am very happy with the results! https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ipm5JoIJ9baDYJD5hbttF3ZKhFOCd-OWQ2A48COU0jg/edit#heading=h.hcfsn8dd2dw4

US New Home Sales see Comeback; hope for the real estate market in the coming weeks

US single-family homes have seen a large rise in purchases.  increased more than expected in May and business activity contracted moderately this month, suggesting the economy was on the cusp of recovering from the recession caused by the COVID-19 crisis. Home prices are usually a very good indicator of the health of the market, according to Yale School of Management professor Robert Shiller. He stated in his "Financial Markets" Lecture that Home prices usually echo the trend of indices such as the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones index.  However, there have been many increases in COVID-19 cases around the country, due to the reopening of states. But, businesses, small and large alike have been opening up, Thus stimulating the economy, meaning the increase in home prices and buys.  New home sales jumped 16.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said. New home sales are counted at the signing of a contract, making them a le...

A Short Lived Victory

In my last post, I was raving about how the stock market has shot upward in a matter of 12 hours. The Dow Jones index has had a strict increase from June 5 to June 8, but then erased a lot of its gains this past Thursday, June 11th with a 1,800 point decrease. This is likely attributed to the prompt reopening of states. States all over the United States are lifting coronavirus restrictions, perhaps faster than they should be. There have been 14 states with coronavirus case increase greater than 50% after reopening. Arizona has reported a 93% increase in COVID-19 cases in hospitals due to the premature reopening. Although states are adamant about opening up again, it may be in the best interest of the economy and the country's health to keep closed a bit longer. I'd recommend opening up slower than what we have been doing. For example, many states only have 2 phases of reopening. However, if we split that up into 4 or 5, then that would be of great benefit to the country.  For n...