Why do falling birth rates correlate to more economic development?

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Many researchers have come up with the conclusion that decreasing fertility rates will then cause our population to fall back down. A new report in a peer-reviewed medical journal, The Lancet, has concluded that the world population will peak at 9.7 billion by 2064, but then fall back down to 8.8 billion by 2100. I will now explain the different situations across the whole world by illustrating the relationship between economic development and birth and death rates. 

To begin, highly economically developed countries such as Japan, Germany, Italy, and Spain are expected to decrease in population in the next century or so. This is what we call Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM). In Stage 5 of the DTM, a country experiences loss to the overall population as the death rate becomes higher than the birth rate. What occurs is an aging citizenry that will eventually lead to a decrease in the total population. More people are working (women included), which means they are less likely to have children, thus causing a decrease in the birth rate. The lack of children being born causes an overall older/aging population, thus increasing the death rate as old people are more likely to die of natural/other causes. 

Other countries in Sub-saharan Africa are seeing higher natural rates of increase.  Medicine and healthcare are improving here, meaning that the population is now older on average. The lower natural rate of increase coupled with the higher economic stability and development push some of these countries into stage 3 of the DTM. This means that the birth rates are staying high, but the death rate is falling, causing a higher rate of increase. These countries are now moving from stage 2 to stage 3 of the DTM. Stage 3 sees economic growth and development while having a huge population boom. A good example of a stage 3 country in the past 10-15 years would be India. As of today, India is a high stage 3, low stage 4 country.

In the coming 50 years, there will be many shifts in economic power as well as population rises and declines. Time will tell what kind of economic growth we may see in our world. 

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